What to expect from Obama’s Syria speech

Just 10 days ago, President Barack Obama impatiently informed Americans that he had exhausted diplomatic options on Syria and had decided to go to war. And he challenged Congress to vote to authorize military force.

On Tuesday, Obama earnestly informed lawmakers that he was pursuing a diplomatic option and pleaded with them not to screw it up by voting on (and defeating) his request to use military force.

As of this writing, the contents of the president's 9 p.m. ET address to the nation on Syria are still something of a mystery, but White House advisers, senators and congressional aides suggest that his approach will run something like this:

- He'll revisit the events of Aug. 21, accusing Bashar Assad's regime of slaughtering more than 1,000 people, including hundreds of children, with chemical weapons.

- He will argue that American and allied intelligence leaves no room for doubt — and that the only question now is how to respond to the first large-scale chemical attack in 25 years.

- He will argue the risks of inaction dwarf the risks of action (probably the heaviest lift of the speech, given American fears about escalation or giving a leg up to extremist elements among the rebels).

- He will note that he concluded late last month that going to war with Syria — with missile strikes, not ground troops — was the right approach.

- But he will lay out the new Russia-backed proposal that calls for Syria to place its chemical weapons under international control to be destroyed.

- And he will say that the credible threat of force was the only reason that the Russian offer ended up on the table and received Syrian support — and that the possibility of military action must stay on the table.

- He will say that, in separate closed-door meetings with Senate Democrats and Republicans, he urged them to put off a vote on authorizing force — he will probably omit the fact that he stood to lose, and by a lot, in the face of strong opposition to his policy from the American public.

- Instead, he will say that lawmakers should craft a new resolution, or modify the current one, to ensure that the unfolding diplomatic initiative has teeth. (That's already happening.)

- He will lay out principles for what the Russian approach should say, without getting bogged down in specific disputes about the content of a possible U.N. Security Council resolution that would formally lay out Moscow's blueprint.

- He will revisit his vow to "degrade" Assad's ability to use chemical weapons again and punish him for the Aug. 21 attack — and argue that stripping the regime of its most terrible battlefield advantage would achieve both goals.

- He may have a message of reassurance to some of America's allies in the region — Turkey, Lebanon, and Jordan – and an unmistakable statement of ironclad support for Israel.

- And he may have a warning for Assad, telling him that America reserves the right to strike unilaterally should the Syrian strongman, for example, use chemical weapons again.

Will it sway public opinion? Or Congress? "I don't expect that it's going to suddenly swing the polls wildly in the direction of another military engagement," Obama told CBS late Monday.

Obama's speech comes amid a frenzy of diplomacy and behind-the-scenes intrigue, bordering on chaos:

- Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted America needed to take the threat of force off the table in order to secure Syrian compliance

- France was drafting a strongly worded U.N. Security Council resolution warning Syria to place its chemical weapons arsenal under international control or face "extremely serious consequences."

- The United Nations Security Council envisioned, then postponed, a meeting.

- Russia planned to send the United States proposals for U.N. action, apparently eager to avoid a binding resolution implicitly carrying the threat of force.

- Secretary of State John Kerry said Washington needs "a full resolution from the Security Council in order to have confidence that this has the force that it has to have." Kerry planned to travel to Geneva to meet Thursday with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov.

- Syria said it would declare its chemical weapons arsenal and hoped to join the Chemical Weapons Convention, the international treaty forbidding countries from stockpiling those weapons of mass destruction.

Chris Moody contributed to this report

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