Poll suggests Bill de Blasio could avoid run-off in NYC mayoral race

NEW YORK—Just one week before the Sept. 10 primary, a new poll suggests Bill de Blasio could possibly avoid a run-off in the Democratic race for mayor.

A Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday found 43 percent of likely Democratic voters are backing de Blasio's bid to replace outgoing Mayor Michael Bloomberg—just past the 40-percent threshold needed to avoid a run-off election.

De Blasio, who is the city's public advocate, has a 23-point lead over his closest contender, former Comptroller Bill Thompson, who is in second place at 20 percent. City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, once the frontrunner in the race, has slipped to 18 percent support.

The other contenders in the race are in single digits, including former Rep. Anthony Weiner, at 7 percent; Comptroller John Liu, 4 percent; and former City Council member Sal Albanese, at 1 percent. Eight percent of voters remain undecided, according to the poll—which reported a plus or minus 3.6 percent margin of error.

But it's unclear if de Blasio really has cleared the 40-percent threshold needed. Quinnipiac's likely vote tally also included people who said they are undecided but are leaning toward a candidate—a caveat that could have a significant impact on where the mayoral hopefuls actually stand.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released last Friday—which did not include "leaners"—found de Blasio with 32 percent support among likely Democratic voters, trailed by Thompson (18 percent) and Quinn (17 percent).

The Quinnipiac poll continues to mark a dramatic turnaround in fortunes for de Blasio, who had been trailing in fourth place just six weeks ago. His surge appears to be linked to his heavy campaigning on issues including his stance against the city's controversial stop-and-frisk measure that allowed police officers to randomly search people and income inequality in New York. Both issues have helped him win strong support among the city's black voters, which make up about 30 percent of the electorate.

According to Quinnipiac, 47 percent of black voters are backing de Blasio, compared to 25 percent for Thompson, the race's only black candidate.

De Blasio has also won over women—a crucial voting bloc that had been expected to back Quinn, who is vying to be the city's first female mayor. The poll finds 44 percent of women voters are backing de Blasio, compared to 19 percent for Thompson and 18 percent for Quinn.

http://news.yahoo.com/poll-suggests-bill-de-blasio-could-avoid-run-off-in-nyc-mayoral-race-185725374.html